The Used Equipment Market Is Splitting in Two -- And Appraisers Need to Pick a Side
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional appraisal advice. Appraisal methodology is governed by USPAP standards and each appraiser's scope of work and professional judgment.
If you have been appraising machinery and equipment for a few decades, you remember the days when the secondary market moved in relative lockstep. You could walk an equipment yard, take the general temperature of the industrial economy, and apply a broad market trend across a mixed fleet. Whether you were looking at yellow iron, heavy trucks, or agricultural implements, the macro indicators usually pushed values in the same direction at roughly the same time.
That era ended sometime in 2025, and 2026 is making sure you know it.
A recent Sandhills Global report put the divergence in plain terms: truck dealers are facing a challenging market with continued pricing pressure and soft demand, while used farm equipment sales are rising. These are not regional anecdotes or blips. They are measurable, documented splits in a market that appraisers have historically treated as a single organism.
The implications for your work are direct.
The Sales Comparison Approach Has a New Problem
The sales comparison approach depends on comparable sales from the same market. That sounds obvious until the market stops being a single thing. If you are appraising a Class 8 vocational truck and your comp pool inadvertently includes farm equipment transactions from the same period, you are benchmarking against a market moving in the opposite direction. Under USPAP, an appraiser's selection of comparable sales must reflect sound professional judgment and the specific assignment conditions — and right now, that means the divergence between asset classes is a factor that demands attention in scope of work decisions.
Asset class specificity has always been an important consideration in comp selection. In 2026, it deserves to be one of the primary filters — alongside geographic market, transaction date, and asset condition. The market is telling you something specific.
The same principle applies in reverse. If you are appraising a large ag equipment portfolio and you reach for used heavy truck comps because you need more transaction volume, you are importing a soft market into a rising one. Your comp selection rationale will need to account for why those transactions represent the same market as your subject asset.
The Cost Approach Is Also Under Pressure — From a Different Direction
While the sales comparison approach is navigating an asset class split, the cost approach is being affected by documented tariff volatility. In early 2026, a federal court ruling struck down the executive authority underlying the IEEPA tariffs that had been adding import cost pressure on equipment since 2025 — this is a real, reported legal development, not a projection. The administration responded by implementing Section 122 tariffs at 15 percent, which carry a 150-day statutory expiration under the Trade Act of 1974.
What this means for replacement cost: you are working with a moving target on new equipment pricing. OEMs absorbed billions in additional costs during the IEEPA regime. Some of that is reflected in current list prices. Some may unwind if Section 122 expires without extension. Some is already baked into supply chain decisions that won't reverse regardless of tariff status.
The practical takeaway for appraisers using the cost approach is that your replacement cost new figures need to be dated and sourced with greater specificity than usual. A cost estimate from eighteen months ago is not just stale — it may be directionally off depending on which tariff regime was in effect when it was produced.
Auction Volume Is Not the Same as Price Stability
Ritchie Bros. ran its Orlando auction in early 2026 and sold over $265 million in equipment — described as the largest auction in the industry. That is a meaningful data point. It signals healthy market throughput and continued demand for used assets at the wholesale level.
But volume and price stability are not the same thing. A large auction can clear significant equipment while still showing diverging price performance across asset classes. The aggregate result tells you demand is present. It does not tell you how your specific asset class performed within that sale.
When pulling auction comps, the granular data by category is the evidence. An aggregate hammer total is a headline.
What to Expect Through H1 2026
The truck market softness is not a short-term correction. It reflects a structural overcapacity situation in Class 7 and Class 8 vocational trucks that built up through 2022 and 2023 and has been working its way through the system since. Dealer inventory remains elevated. Used values are under pressure.
The agricultural equipment uptick is partly seasonal, partly a correction from the 2023-2024 downturn in commodity prices that suppressed farm equipment investment. Demand is returning, but it is not uniformly distributed across all ag equipment categories.
Appraisers who track these trends regularly will produce more defensible reports than those relying on aggregate indexes with a significant lag. The market is telling you something specific right now. Whether your comp selection process reflects that is a scope of work question worth asking.